In 1977, R.W. Johnson’s bestselling How Long Will South Africa Survive? offered a controversial and highly original analysis of the survival prospects of the apartheid regime. Now, after more than two decades of the ANC in government, he believes the question must be posed again.
‘The big question about ANC rule,’ Johnson writes, ‘is whether African nationalism would be able to cope with the challenges of running a modern industrial economy. Twenty years of ANC rule have shown conclusively that the party is hopelessly ill-equipped for this task. Indeed, everything suggests that South Africa under the ANC is fast slipping backward and that even the survival of South Africa as a unitary state cannot be taken for granted. It is now clear that South Africa can either choose to have an ANC government or it can have a modern industrial economy. It cannot have both.’
Johnson’s analysis is strikingly original and cogently argued, in keeping with his reputation for lucid comment and his willingness to tackle established consensus.