The Improbable War

This book explains why conflict between the US and China cannot be ruled out. In 1914 war between the Great Powers was considered unlikely, yet it happened, and the lessons we draw from its outbreak are usually mistaken. Among these errors is the tendency to over-estimate human rationality. All major conflicts of the past 300 years have been about the norms and rules of the international system. In Xi Xinping’s China and Donald Trump’s US we find two powers whose values differ markedly, with China bidding to challenge the current order. The ‘Thucydidean Trap’ — when a conservative status quo power confronts a rising new one — may also play its part in precipitating hostilities. To avoid stumbling into an avoidable war both Beijing and Washington need a coherent strategy, which neither of them has. The next global conflict may be played out in the new spheres of cyberspace and outer space, but like all previous wars it will have devastating consequences. Such a war between the United States and China looks less ‘improbable’ with every passing year.